Florida goes to the polls today to choose their nominees for the general election in statewide and federal offices, and the two men who have nothing to do today are the most affected. According to a new survey from PPP, Kendrick Meek should easily win his primary over billionaire self-funder Jeff Greene, who more or less imploded over the last several weeks. With Meek in the race, both Democrats and Republicans come home to their parties — which is good news for Marco Rubio and a big problem for Charlie Crist:As I've said before, Crist will pick some, but by no means anything approaching the majority of the Independent vote. He and Meek will split the Dem vote while Marco takes the Republican and Independent vote and ultimately the Senate seat. Crist badly misjudged the Florida electorate and moved way too far left. There is simply no graceful way for him to move back to the center now.
Democrats will get their stronger candidate if Kendrick Meek wins the Florida Senate primary tonight as expected- but the biggest winner coming out of the primary may be Marco Rubio. PPP finds he would begin the general election in the lead at 40%, followed by Charlie Crist at 32%, and Meek at 17%. If Jeff Greene were somehow able to pull off the upset tonight it would be much closer with Rubio at 37%, Crist at 36%, and Greene at only 13%.
PPP’s last poll of the race in mid-July found Crist in the lead at 35% to 29% for Rubio and 17% for Meek. Two major developments have shifted the race in Rubio’s direction though. The first is that Democrats are now going for Meek 39-38 where before they were going for Crist 44-35. As Democrats have gotten to know Meek over the course of the primary campaign they’ve generally decided they like him and that’s cut into Crist’s support for the general election.
The other big difference is that many Republican voters have moved off the fence and they’ve almost universally moved into the Rubio column. Where Rubio had a 54-23 lead with GOP voters in July, it’s now increased to 69-20. Many Republicans were up in the air between Crist and Rubio previously but whatever they’ve seen over the last month has moved them more firmly into the Rubio column.
In the House race in this district, Kathy Castor is considered "safe". Really? Whomever comes out on top tonight between Mike Prendergast and Eddie Adams, Jr., we will have a candidate who is more than capable of unseating the ninth most liberal member in the House of Representatives.
Only 20 percent of the population self identifies as "liberal" which puts Castor way outside of the mainstream. In the coming days I will be providing a closer look at Castor's record and it will become clear that on issue after issue, Castor has voted contrary to the constituency.
Lastly, after tonight Jeff Greene will no longer be spamming my inbox. That my friends, is a very good thing.